Chaos in the Middle East, Calm in the CPI

• 📈 Market Indices Update

• 📢 Top 3 Market Stories

• 🔎 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

• 🔥 Underrated & Overrated Stocks

• 📊 One Chart

• 🚀 Biggest Market Movers

• 💡 Financial Term

📈 Market Indices Update

• S&P 500: ↓ 1.13% to 5,976.97 – Middle East tensions erased weekly gains as investors fled risk.

• Dow Jones: ↓ 1.80% to 42,197.79 – Biggest drop in over a month on global conflict fears.

• Nasdaq: ↓ 1.30% to 19,408.35 – Tech stocks fell as growth assets lost favor.

• Gold (Spot $/Oz): ↑ 1.34% to $3,431.28/oz – Jumped as investors sought safe-haven assets.

• 10-Yr Treasury Yield: ↓ to 4.423% – Yields dropped as bond demand rose.

• EUR/USD: 1.1512 (−0.70%) – Euro weakened on stronger dollar flows.

• USD/JPY: ¥144.15 (+0.29%) – Dollar gained as safe-haven demand surged.

• Bitcoin: ↓ 1.57% to $105,148.79 – Risk-off mood hit crypto markets.

🔍 Summary: Rising geopolitical risks sparked a sharp market sell-off, driving investors toward gold, Treasuries, and the US dollar.

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📢 Top 3 Market Stories You Should Care About

1️⃣ Israel Strikes Iran, Middle East Tensions Explode (Reuters)

• Israel launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in response to escalating threats.

• Iran retaliated by firing a volley of ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory—some intercepted, some reportedly landing in urban regions.

• The U.S. called for de-escalation but affirmed its support for Israel, sending additional naval assets to the region.

Market Reaction: Oil soared nearly 9%; defense stocks ($LMT ( ▲ 0.15% ), $RTX ( ▲ 1.4% )) and gold surged, while airlines and consumer cyclical names sold off sharply.

2️⃣ Consumer Sentiment Surprises to the Upside (CNBC)

• The University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June, beating expectations.

• 1-year inflation expectations dropped to 5.1%, the lowest since early 2024.

• Confidence remains fragile compared to pre-2024 levels.

💡 Takeaway: A welcome rebound, but consumers remain cautious amid inflation and global volatility. Will sentiment hold if energy prices spike?

3️⃣ Inflation Cools More Than Expected, Boosting Rate Cut Bets (WSJ)

• May CPI was flat month-over-month; annual inflation eased to 3.3%, below forecasts.

• Core CPI rose just 0.2%, showing broad disinflation.

• The Fed acknowledged “modest further progress” on inflation.

🔎 Key Question: Is this the turning point the Fed needs to start cutting, or will global risks keep them cautious?

🔎 What 5 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

📉 Tench Coxe – Director, Nvidia
→ Sold 1M shares (~$142.8M) as $NVDA ( ▲ 1.76% ) stock soared.
→ Long-time insider takes profits amid AI boom.

💰 Walton Family – Walmart
→ Offloaded $1.5B+ in shares of $WMT ( ▲ 1.3% ) via family trusts.
→ Ongoing strategy to diversify and fund philanthropy.

🚀 Tanla Platforms – Buyback Buzz
→ Board to consider share buyback of $TANLA.NSE ( ▲ 0.06% ) on June 16.
→ Stock jumped +13% on investor optimism.

📈 Elliott Management – Stake in Sumitomo Realty
→ Took 3%+ position; pushing for governance shakeup.
→ Shares rose on hopes for higher returns.

🏁 Starboard Value – Exit from GoDaddy
→ Fully sold $GDDY ( ▲ 1.63% ) stake, ending activist campaign.
→ Marks conclusion of years-long strategic push.

🔍 Bonus: Nebius Group – $1B Convertible Raise
→ $NBIS ( ▼ 1.45% ) raised $1B to scale AI infra via convertible notes.
→ Investors betting big on long-term growth.

🔄 My Latest Portfolio Changes

📉 Trimmed positions (between 5–15%) in: $SPY ( ▲ 0.5% ) , $WMT ( ▲ 1.3% ) , $AAPL ( ▲ 0.04% ) , $XLF ( ▲ 0.29% ) , $AMZN ( ▲ 2.85% ) , $NU ( ▼ 1.05% ) , $MELI ( ▼ 0.01% ) , $SHOP ( ▲ 0.51% ) 

Exited yesterday morning, just before Iran’s retaliation—anticipating rising geopolitical risk.

💵 Why: No panic, just wanted dry powder in USD in case market selloff deepens.

📊 One Chart That Explains Everything

Asset Class Recap: 5 Key Takeaways (2020–2024)

• No consistency: Leaders rotated yearly. Volatility ruled—2020’s winners often became 2022’s losers.

• Safe havens mattered again: Gold surged in 2024, proving its value in chaotic markets.

• Bonds broke down: Treasuries failed as a hedge, challenging the 60/40 model.

• Tech bounced back: Despite crashes, the Nasdaq 100 rebounded strongly thanks to AI momentum.

• 2025 opened weak: Geopolitics and tariffs made it one of the worst starts ever for the S&P 500.

🏆 Best & Worst Performers

• 🥇 Bitcoin: +1,053% cumulative — top asset, but highly volatile.

• 🥈 Nasdaq 100: Strong multi-year return, especially in 2023–2024.

• 🥉 Gold: Quietly resilient, outperforming most traditional assets.

• 💀 Worst: Long-Duration Treasuries (TLT), down over 40% across 5 years.

🚀 Biggest Market Movers

📊 Top Weekly Movers (Week Ending June 13, 2025)

📈 Top 3 Winners

$CRCL ( ▼ 15.54% ) (Circle Internet Financial)
→ Soared after Shopify announced it will accept USDC stablecoin payments

$RH ( ▼ 1.15% ) (RH)
→ Jumped on surprise Q1 profit and strong guidance
→ Onshoring strategy and tariff navigation impressed investors

$NMRD ( ▲ 1.29% ) (Newmont Corp)
→ Rallied as gold prices surged on Middle East tensions
→ Benefited from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty

📉 Top 3 Losers

💳 $V ( ▲ 0.75% ) (Visa)
→ Dropped after Amazon & Walmart stablecoin news
→ Concerns rise over card networks being bypassed

🎯 $DKNG ( ▲ 1.56% ) (DraftKings)
→ Fell on profit-taking and competitive pressure
→ Market jitters erased early-week gains

✈️ $ACHR ( ▼ 1.13% ) (Archer Aviation)
→ Slumped after discounted share offering announcement
→ Dilution fears triggered a sharp sell-off

💡 Financial Term of the Week: Safe-Haven Asset

📌 What It Means:
A safe-haven asset is something investors flock to during times of market stress or uncertainty because it tends to hold or increase its value when everything else falls.

📊 Why It Matters:
In turbulent markets—like during war, inflation spikes, or economic slowdowns—safe-haven assets help protect portfolios from steep losses.

📉 Real-World Example:
After Israel struck Iran this week, gold prices surged over 1% as investors moved out of stocks and into gold—one of the most classic safe-haven assets. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar also gained, reflecting a broader flight to safety.