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  • 📈 Markets Just Had Their Best Week Since 2001 — But 🧯 Don’t Get Too Comfortable

📈 Markets Just Had Their Best Week Since 2001 — But 🧯 Don’t Get Too Comfortable

Tariff truce & tech rally 📊 • Dollar dives 💵 • Big insider buys 🔎 • $ABNB spotlight 🏡 • Is $EL overpriced? 💄 • Key earnings + economic data ahead 📅

Author

Dan Pinchasi
April 12, 2025

📈 Market Indices Update (week-to-date)

  • S&P 500: ↑ 5.7% to 5,363 – Jumped after Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days.

  • Dow Jones: ↑ 4.9% to 40,213 – Banks rallied on strong earnings and reduced trade fears.

  • Nasdaq: ↑ 11.2% to 16,724 – Best week since 2001 as AI optimism returned.

  • Gold (Spot $/Oz): ↑ 2.4% to $3,253.66/oz – Hit record high on safe-haven demand.

  • 10-Yr Treasury Yield: ↑ 2.3% to 4.49% – Rose on inflation and fiscal worries.

  • EUR/USD: 1.1300 (+1.43%) – Euro climbed as dollar weakened.

  • USD/JPY: ¥143.58 (−0.63%) – Yen gained as investors sought safety.

  • Bitcoin: ↑ 4.6% to $83,399 – Rebounded with improving risk sentiment.

🔍 Summary: Markets soared on tariff relief and strong earnings, though inflation and debt concerns still loom. Finally some green after 8-day red run!

Data as of market close, 4:00pm ET

📢 Top 3 Market Stories You Should Care About

​1️⃣ Trump Pauses Tariffs for 90 Days, Markets Soar (Source)

  • Trump halted new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico for 90 days.

  • Investors took it as a sign of possible de-escalation in the trade war.

  • $NASDAQ ( 0.0% ) posted its best week since 2001, up over 11%. $SPX ( ▼ 0.07% ) and $DJI ( ▼ 0.29% ) were up too.

  • Market Reaction: Stocks surged across the board; tech led the rebound.

🔎 Why It Matters: A temporary truce restored investor confidence—but is it just a pause before more chaos?

2️⃣ The Dollar Drops Sharply as Global Confidence Wavers (Source)

  • The U.S. dollar fell 1.4%, its biggest weekly drop in a year.

  • Traders are questioning America’s fiscal credibility and global leadership.

  • Gold, euro, and Bitcoin all rallied in response to dollar weakness.

  • Market Reaction: Capital rotated into alternative assets and non-USD currencies.

🔎 Key Question: Is this the start of a broader shift away from the dollar?

3️⃣ U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up With Massive Tariffs (Source)

  • U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods.

  • China hit back with 125% tariffs on American imports.

  • Investors worry about inflation and global recession risks.

  • Market Reaction: Bond yields surged as safe-haven demand spiked.

🔎 Takeaway: Tensions are at a breaking point—will this spiral into a full-blown economic cold war?

🔎 What 5 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

📈 Gary Dickerson – CEO, Applied Materials $AMAT ( ▼ 0.25% ) 
→ Bought 50,000 shares for a total of $6.9M
→ First insider buy in nearly a decade
→ Move comes after an 8% dip on tariff concerns

🚀 Dustin Moskovitz – CEO, Asana $ASAN ( ▲ 0.35% ) 
→ Bought 450,000 shares worth $6.7M over 3 days
→ Continues aggressive insider accumulation
→ Strong long-term conviction in company’s growth

🏛️ Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – U.S. Congress (Multiple Stocks)
→ Bought $19K–$285K in $AMZN ( ▲ 0.51% ) , $AAPL ( ▲ 0.53% ) , $DELL ( ▼ 0.32% ) , $LULU ( ▼ 0.94% ) , $NKE ( ▼ 1.04% ) , and $RH ( ▼ 1.18% ) 
→ Trades made just before 90-day tariff pause
→ Raised eyebrows amid potential insider timing 👀 

💰 David D. Smith – Chairman, Sinclair Inc. $SBGI ( ▲ 2.04% ) 
→ Bought 185,145 shares for a total of $2.5M
→ Stock trades at 3.1X P/E with 7.6% yield
→ Significant buy at multi-year lows

🧪 Coliseum Capital – Shareholder, Owens & Minor $OMI ( ▲ 0.29% ) 
→ Bought 410,000 shares for approx. $3.1M
→ Stock is down 73% YoY; firm doubling down
→ Potential turnaround play in the healthcare space

🔍 Big money is making moves—watch these stocks for potential momentum shifts! 🚀

🔥 Underrated Stock of the Week: $ABNB ( ▲ 0.51% ) 

Airbnb is a global leader in short-term rentals and travel experiences, operating in over 220 countries. With an asset-light model and a strong brand, Airbnb is expanding into adjacent services like experiences, concierge offerings, and loyalty programs.​

📊 Key Financials & Metrics

  • Stock Price: $114.54​

  • P/E Ratio: 27.9

  • Market Cap: $71.2B​

  • EV/EBITDA: 23.9x

  • Quarterly Revenue Growth: +11.8% YoY

  • EPS Growth: —

  • Net Profit Margin: 23.9%​

  • Debt-to-Equity (D/E): 28%

  • ROE (Return on Equity): 32%​

  • Beta (Volatility): 1.15​

  • Analysts’ 12-Month Target: $153 (+33.5%)​

  • 30-Day Change: -8.7% | YTD Change: -12.8%​

💪 Pros:

✔️ Strong free cash flow and zero debt​
✔️ Expanding into new services like experiences and concierge offerings
✔️ High ROE and improving margins​

💩 Cons:

❌ Regulatory challenges in key markets​
❌ Increased competition from traditional OTAs and hotels​

💰 Hot Take: Is $EL ( ▼ 0.41% ) Overhyped and Overvalued?

Estée Lauder is a global leader in prestige beauty, offering skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. Despite its strong brand portfolio, the company faces challenges that may not be fully reflected in its current valuation.​

📊 Key Financials & Metrics

  • Stock Price: $55.23​

  • P/E Ratio: 81x

  • Market Cap: $19.17B​

  • EV/EBITDA: 45x

  • Quarterly Revenue Growth: -6.4% YoY

  • EPS Growth: —

  • Net Profit Margin: -4.6%

  • Debt-to-Equity (D/E): 2.25x​

  • ROE (Return on Equity): -13%

  • Beta (Volatility): 1.1x

  • Analysts’ 12-Month Target: $75.27 (+36%)

  • 30-Day Change: -20% | YTD Change: -26%

🐂 Bull Case (Why It Could Keep Rising)

✔️ Strong brand portfolio with global recognition​
✔️ Restructuring initiatives aimed at cost savings​
✔️ Potential recovery in key markets like China​

🐻 Bear Case (Why It Might Decline)

❌ High valuation multiples despite declining profitability​
❌ Continued challenges in major markets impacting sales​
❌ Significant debt levels increasing financial risk

🔍 TL;DR: While Estée Lauder has a strong brand and global presence, its current valuation appears stretched given recent financial performance and ongoing market challenges. Investors should exercise caution and consider the potential risks associated with its high valuation.

🌍 Visual of the Week: One Year of Plastic Waste

This visual stacks up 400 million tonnes of global plastic waste — as tall as the Burj Khalifa — and shows exactly where it’s coming from.

source: visual capitalist

📦 Packaging = The Main Culprit

  • 155.9M tonnes, or nearly 40% of all plastic waste.

  • Mostly single-use items: wrappers, bottles, shipping materials.

🧴 The Next Big Four (~44% Combined):

  • Consumer Products: 47M T

  • Vehicles: 47.9M T

  • Textiles: 42.9M T

  • Construction/Electronics: 37.5M T

Each sector contributes ~10% to the total.

🧩 Other: 67.7M T – medical, industrial, miscellaneous use.

💡 Takeaway:

Packaging is the low-hanging fruit in the plastic crisis. Most of it is used once and tossed. Rethinking how we package and ship could make the biggest dent, fast.

🚀 Biggest Market Movers

📈 Top 5 Winners

📉 Top 5 Losers

💹 Next Week in Review (April 15–19, 2025)

🌎 Key Economic Events

  • Tuesday:
    📉 Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
    📊 Import Price Index (Mar)

  • Wednesday:
    🛍️ Retail Sales (Mar)
    ⚙️ Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Mar)

  • Thursday:
    📉 Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
    🏠 Housing Starts & Building Permits (Mar)
    🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)

📊 Earnings to Watch

✈️ Heads up! I'm taking a quick break

I'll be on vacation for the next 2 weeks, so the newsletter will be coming 1x week during that time.

As always, if there’s a specific stock, topic, or concept you’d like me to cover — just hit reply and let me know!

And if you’re enjoying the content and think it could help a friend, sibling, or your group chat full of wannabe investors — please forward it along 💌. We can easily 2x or 3x the newsletter if each one refers to 2-3 people.

Thanks for reading & see you next week! 🙌

— Dan

💡 Financial Term of the Week: Share Buybacks

📌 What It Means:
Share buybacks happen when a company uses its own money to buy back its own stock. This lowers the total number of shares available in the market.

📊 Why It Matters:

  1. Company buys back its own shares

  2. Fewer shares are in the market

  3. Earnings per share (EPS) go up

  4. Investors see stronger performance

  5. Stock price often rises

  6. Sends a signal: “We believe in our future”

📉 Real-World Example:
In 2024, Meta ($META) announced a massive $50 billion share buyback. Chevron ($CVX) also committed to $75 billion in buybacks, showing strong cash flow and investor confidence.

🎧 Podcast of the Week: Pomp and Zach Weinberg on Tariffs, Trade, and Markets

Disclaimer & Important Notice: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The content is based on publicly available information and our analysis but should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market Cheat Sheet makes no guarantees regarding accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. We are not responsible for any financial losses resulting from reliance on this content. Additionally, we are not affiliated with any mentioned companies, stocks, or individuals unless explicitly stated. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge that Market Cheat Sheet is not liable for any investment decisions or outcomes.

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