Market Volatility: Is This the Dip Before the Rip?

Table of Contents

• 📈 Market Indices & Treasury Update

• 📢 Top 3 Market Stories

• 🔎 What 5 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

• 🔥 Underrated Stock of the Week

• 💰 Hot Take: Wells Fargo ($WFC)

• 📊 One Chart That Explains Everything

• 🗳 Quick Poll

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📈 Market Indices & Treasury Update

S&P 500: ↓ 1.2% to 5,778 – Trade tensions raised concerns about economic growth.​

Dow Jones: ↓ 1.6% to 42,521 – Industrial and financial sectors led the decline.

Nasdaq: ↓ 0.4% to 18,285 – Tech stocks showed resilience but still edged lower.​

Gold: $2,928.20/oz ↑ 0.9% – Investors sought safe-haven assets amid market volatility.​

Bitcoin: $87,764 ↑ 1.9% – Continued institutional buying pushed prices higher.​

EUR/USD: 1.0557 ↑ 0.9% – Euro strengthened on German fiscal stimulus plans.​

USD/JPY: 148.80 ↓ 0.4% – Yen gained as investors moved to safer assets.​

10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.18% – Yields held steady despite market turmoil.​

_{Note: All data as of 4pm EST March 4, 2025.}

📢 Top 3 Market Stories You Should Care About

#1. 🚀 Trump's Tariffs Trigger Market Turmoil (WSJ)

• 📜 Announced Tariffs Measures:

  • 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico.​

  • 20% on goods from China.​

  • 10% specifically on Canadian energy products.​

• 🏭 Sector Impacts:

  • Automotive: Increased costs due to cross-border supply chains.​

  • Manufacturing: Facing higher prices for imported components.​

  • Agriculture: Retaliatory tariffs from affected countries targeting U.S. farm products.​

• 👥 Consumer Impact:

  • Price Increases: Higher costs for products like cars, electronics, and groceries.

  • Example: A laptop that previously cost $1,000 may now be priced at $1,250 due to increased import costs.​

• 🔮 Next Steps:

  • Potential trade negotiations to mitigate tariff impacts.​

  • Monitoring of retaliatory measures from affected countries.​

  • Businesses may seek alternative supply chains or consider domestic production.

#2. ⚓ BlackRock's Major Acquisition of Panama Canal Ports (FT)

• 💰 $22.8 billion deal: A BlackRock-led consortium acquired majority stakes in ports at both ends of the Panama Canal.​

• 🌐 Strategic move: These ports handle 40% of container traffic through the canal, making them critical for global trade.​

• 🇨🇳 Reducing foreign influence: The acquisition aims to decrease Chinese control over essential infrastructure and address national security concerns related to key infrastructure.

#3. 🛑 US Suspends Military Aid to Ukraine (FT)

• 🛡️ Aid suspension: The US halted all military assistance to Ukraine, affecting the delivery of ammunition, vehicles, and other equipment.​

• 🤝 Diplomatic tensions: The decision follows a contentious meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy over peace negotiations with Russia.​

• 🌍 International concern: European leaders criticized the move, fearing it could embolden Russian aggression.

🔎 What 5 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

📉 Robyn Denholm – Chairwoman, Tesla ($TSLA) (Source)
→ Sold 112,390 shares, totaling $33.7 million
→ Follows previous $117M in sales over the past three months
→ Tesla is the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer

📈 Stéphane Bancel – CEO, Moderna ($MRNA) (Source)
→ Bought 160,314 shares, totaling $5 million
→ Moderna is a leading biotech company known for mRNA vaccine development

🚀 Stanley Druckenmiller – Billionaire Investor (Source)
→ Druckenmiller is a legendary hedge fund manager with a strong track record in tech investments.
→ Bought: Amazon ($AMZN) – ~$75 million; Tesla ($TSLA) – ~$16m, Alphabet ($GOOGL) – ~$15m, Micron Technology ($MU) - $34m, Arm Holding $ARM, Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM.
→ Sold: Microsoft ($MSFT), Broadcom ($AVGO), Adobe ($ADBE), Starbucks ($SBUX), Coupong ($CPNG)

💰 Booking Holdings ($BKNG) – $20 Billion Share Buyback (Source)
→ Repurchasing $20 billion in stock
→ Quarterly dividend increased by 10% to $9.60 per share
→ Booking operates global travel brands such as Booking.com, Priceline, and Kayak

🔄 Rolls-Royce ($RR.L) – £1 Billion Share Buyback (Source)
→ Announced a £1 billion ($1.27 billion) buyback program
→ Reinstated dividends after halting during COVID
→ Rolls-Royce specializes in aerospace and defense engineering

🔍 Big money is making moves—watch these stocks for potential momentum shifts! 🚀

🔥 Underrated Stock of the Week: LVMH ($MC.PA)

📚 Company Overview

LVMH is a French multinational luxury conglomerate, encompassing over 70 prestigious brands across fashion, jewelry, cosmetics, and spirits.​ It owns prestigious brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët & Chandon, Sephora, and Bulgari.

📊 Key Financials & Metrics

• Stock Price: €667.40​

• P/E Ratio: 20.5x​

• Market Cap: €334.0B​

• Revenue Growth: -1% (FY2024)​

• EPS Growth: -17% (FY2024)​

• EV/NTM Revenue: 4.2x​

• Analysts’ 12-Month Target: €700.00​ (+5%)

• 30-Day Change: -3.6%​

• YTD Change: +5.0%​

💪 Pros

Diverse luxury portfolio with over 70 globally recognized luxury brands.​ Expanding presence in experiential luxury through hotels and private clubs.

💩 Cons

Recent slowdown in key markets, particularly China, affecting sales momentum. In economic downturns, discretionary spending contracts, which can impact sales of high-end products.

💰 Hot Take: Wells Fargo ($WFC)

📚 Company Overview

Wells Fargo is one of the largest U.S. banks, offering banking, investment, mortgage, and commercial lending services. It has a strong presence in consumer banking and wealth management, competing with JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.

📊 Key Financials & Metrics

• Stock Price: $73.30

• P/E Ratio: 11.8X

• Market Cap: $270.5B

• Revenue Growth: +1% (FY2024)

• EPS Growth: +3.5% (FY2024)

• EV/NTM Revenue: 3.0X

• Analysts’ 12-Month Target: $80.00 (+9%)

• 30-Day Change: -0.5%

• YTD Change: +2.0%

✅ Pros:

• Strong loan portfolio & net interest income – Rising interest rates have helped Wells Fargo generate higher profits from lending.

• Investment banking recovery – 59% growth in advisory and M&A fees boosts revenue diversification.

❌ Cons:

• Regulatory risks & past scandals – Ongoing legal scrutiny limits growth and capital flexibility.

• Consumer debt concerns – A potential economic slowdown could increase loan defaults.

📉 Why It Might Be Overvalued:

• Moderate revenue growth (+1%) vs. high stock performance (+44.67% YoY) – The stock has outperformed despite relatively slow revenue growth.

• P/E Ratio (11.8X) vs. historical levels – While lower than peers like JPM, it’s trading at a premium vs. past years.

• Interest rate dependency – If the Fed cuts rates in late 2025, net interest margins could shrink, impacting earnings growth.

• Regulatory overhang – Potential fines and restrictions could cap future upside.

📊 One Chart That Explains Everything

Trade Deficit Impact & Trump’s Focus (Source)

• 🇨🇳 China – $295.4B Deficit: Keeps U.S. consumer prices low by importing cheap Chinese products but accelerates manufacturing job losses in the U.S.. Trump: Imposes tariffs to push companies to manufacture in the U.S.

• 🇲🇽 Mexico – $171.8B Deficit: Signals nearshoring success but shifts U.S. dollars to Mexico.
  Trump: Wants stricter trade terms & border policies to favor U.S. jobs.

• 🇨🇦 Canada – $63.3B Deficit: Driven by energy imports (oil & gas), but the U.S. has a surplus in services.
  Trump: Mostly focusing on fairer energy & trade deals.

🗳 Quick Poll

📊 Vote now & see what others are betting on!

Thanks for being part of this! 🙌

— Dan

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