💥 Tariffs, Oil, and a Buffett Exit: What’s Shaking Markets This Week

• 📈 Market Indices Update

• 📢 Top 3 Market Stories

• 🔎 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

• 📊 Buffett's Final Flex

• 📊 Chart of the Week

• 🚀 Biggest Market Movers

📈 Market Indices Update

• S&P 500: ↓ 0.82% to 5,603.87 – Investors cautious ahead of Fed decision.

• Dow Jones: ↓ 0.94% to 40,829 – Tariff concerns weigh on blue chips. 

• Nasdaq: ↓ 0.87% to 17,689.66 – Tech stocks retreat amid earnings jitters.

• Gold (Spot $/Oz): ↑ 2.4% to $3,413.29/oz – Safe-haven demand rises before Fed meeting.

• 10-Yr Treasury Yield: ↑ 0.69% to 4.36% – Yields climb as investors await Fed guidance.

• EUR/USD: 1.1372 (+0.51%) – Euro strengthens on dollar softness.

• USD/JPY: ¥142.81 (-1.25%) – Yen gains as dollar retreats.

• Bitcoin: ↑ 0.69% to $94,957.73 – Crypto edges higher amid market volatility.

^{_{Data as of market close, 4:00pm ET}}

 
📢 Top 3 Market Stories You Should Care About

1️⃣ US Trade Deficit Widens as Tariff Uncertainty Disrupts Supply Chains (Source)

• March trade deficit jumped 9.1% to $76.4B, the highest since October 2022.

• Exports fell while imports rose, especially from countries not facing tariff hikes.

• Businesses are stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs, distorting trade flows.

🔍 Key Question: Will political brinkmanship on tariffs derail the fragile global supply chain recovery?

2️⃣ Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Caution on Inflation (Source)

• The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%.

• Chair Powell emphasized vigilance on inflation, citing tariff-driven price pressures.

• Markets now expect fewer rate cuts in 2025, with the first possibly delayed to

🔍 Why It Matters: The Fed's cautious stance may prolong higher borrowing costs, affecting consumer spending and business investment.

3️⃣ OPEC+ Accelerates Oil Production Increases, Crude Prices Tumble (Source)

• OPEC+ announced larger-than-expected production hikes starting in June.

• Brent crude fell 3.8%, closing near a 3-month low.

• Rising supply outpaces demand, especially as global growth forecasts weaken.

💡 Takeaway: Falling oil prices may offer inflation relief—but could also signal slower global momentum.​

🔎 What 5 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

📉 Michel Khalaf – CEO, MetLife ($MET ( ▲ 0.34% ))
→ Sold 20,926 shares for approximately $1.73 million
→ Transaction occurred as MetLife's stock neared its 52-week high, potentially indicating profit-taking or portfolio diversification

💰 Shell Plc – $3.5 Billion Share Buyback ($SHEL ( ▲ 1.64% ))
→ Announced a $3.5 billion share repurchase program following strong Q1 earnings
→ Marks the 14th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion in buybacks, reflecting confidence in financial performance

💰 Align Technology Inc. ($ALGN ( ▲ 0.53% ))– $1 Billion Share Buyback
→ Authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program
→ Aims to return value to shareholders and demonstrate confidence in future growth

📉 Rafael Santana – CEO, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies ($WAB ( ▲ 0.45% ))
→ Sold shares worth approximately $13.2 million
→ The sale occurred as the stock traded near its 52-week high, possibly signaling a strategic move to capitalize on stock performance

🚀 Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square $PSHZF ( 0.0% ) – $900M Investment in Howard Hughes Holdings ($HHH ( ▲ 2.3% ))
→ Acquired 9 million new shares at $100 each, a 48% premium over prior close
→ Ackman becomes Executive Chairman; move signals strategic shift toward a Berkshire Hathaway–style holding company

📊 Buffett's Final Flex: 5.5 Million% Later...

After a historic 60-year run, Warren Buffett is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of 2025. The handoff goes to Greg Abel—but Buffett’s legacy is very much intact:

📈 Total Return Since 1965:

• Berkshire $BRK.A ( ▲ 0.26% ) , $BRK.B ( ▲ 0.1% ) : +5,502,284%

• S&P 500 (w/ dividends) $SPX ( ▼ 0.07% ) : +39,054%

• Annualized Outperformance: 19.9% vs. 10.4%

💰 $348 Billion in Cash?
Berkshire has now been a net seller of stocks for 10 straight quarters—trimming giants like Apple, Bank of America, and Chevron, while fully exiting HP and Paramount.
Buffett’s reasoning? “We’re waiting for extraordinarily attractive opportunities.”

🧃 The Core 4:
Despite the trimming, Berkshire remains heavily concentrated in Buffett’s conviction names:
- $AAPL ( ▲ 0.53% ) (still the largest)
- $KO ( ▼ 0.91% ) , $AXP ( ▲ 0.3% ) , $OXY ( ▲ 1.74% ) 

Fun fact: Berkshire’s cash now rivals all reserves held by U.S. commercial banks at the Fed.

Learnings:
1. No AI bets. No meme trades. Just dry powder and discipline.
2. The Buffett era may be ending—but the playbook he wrote is more relevant than ever.

📊 Chart of the Week

The Dollar’s Round Trip: From Q4 Surge to 2025 Slump

The U.S. dollar, after a strong Q4 2024 (+7.7% vs. advanced economies, +5.5% vs. EMs), peaked in January but weakened sharply by April. Between Dec 31 and Apr 25, it fell 4.8% overall—driven by tariff fears, recession risks, and stronger European sentiment.

🧾 Business Impact:
Importing from Europe? A weaker dollar means higher costs—your German machinery just got more expensive.

✈️ Personal Impact:
Planning a Euro trip? You’ll pay more for hotels and meals as the euro strengthens.

🚀 Biggest Market Movers

📈 Top 3 Winners

• $HIMS ( ▲ 1.09% ) – Surged on strong subscriber growth and upbeat guidance.

• $CEG ( ▲ 0.29% ) – Jumped after raising full-year profit outlook.

• $LDOS ( ▲ 0.64% ) – Rose on strong defense contracts and Q1 earnings beat.

📉 Top 3 Losers

• $PLTR ( ▼ 1.55% ) (–12.0%) – Dropped despite revenue growth as AI demand flagged.

• $MRNA ( ▼ 0.53% ) – Tumbled on lowered vaccine sales guidance.

• $DASH ( ▲ 0.31% ) – Fell after costly $3.9B acquisition of Deliveroo and soft revenue.