The Fed Stalls, Billionaires Buy Bitcoin, and a $19B Sleeper Stock Breaks Out

• 📈 Market Indices Update

• 📢 Top 3 Market Stories

• 🔎 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

• 📊 One Chart

• 🔥 Underrated & Overrated Stocks

• 🚀 Biggest Market Movers

• 🐤 Tweet of the Week

• 📅 Upcoming Economic Events

• 💡 Financial Term

📈 Market Indices Update

• S&P 500: ↓ 0.5% to 5,659.91 – Declined amid ongoing trade concerns.

• Dow Jones: ↓ 0.2% to 41,249.38 – Fell as investors remained cautious.

• Nasdaq: ↓ 0.3% to 17,928.92 – Tech stocks faced modest losses.

• Gold (Spot $/Oz): ↑ 3.0% to $3,329.10/oz – Surged as investors sought safe-haven assets.

• 10-Yr Treasury Yield: ↑ 1.2% to 4.37% – Yield rose, reflecting cautious optimism.

• EUR/USD: 1.1250 (−0.6%) – The euro weakened against the dollar amid growing confidence in the US economy.

• USD/JPY: ¥145.32 (+0.5%) – The yen slid as the Bank of Japan maintained its accommodative stance.

• Bitcoin: ↑ 9.2% to $102,960 – Continued its rally, buoyed by increased demand and positive market sentiment.

^{_{Data as of market close, 4:00pm ET}}

📢 Top 3 Market Stories You Should Care About

​1️⃣ The Fed Hit Pause — But It’s Not Done Yet (Source)

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%.

• Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is still too high, but rate hikes could also hurt jobs.

• The Fed will now wait for more economic data before deciding what to do next.

🔎 Why It Matters:
The Fed is stuck between two risks — hurting the economy with more hikes or letting inflation linger too long. For investors, this means markets will stay data-dependent and volatile, especially around inflation and job reports.

2️⃣ Trade Tensions Cool (a Bit): US-China Talks + UK Deal

• The US and China will resume trade talks this weekend — their first real attempt at de-escalation in months. (Source)

  • Potential Changes: President Trump suggested reducing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to 80%, indicating a possible softening stance ahead of the talks.

• In a separate move, the US and UK signed a new trade deal, cutting tariffs and boosting goods exchange. (Source)

  • The U.S. will reduce tariffs on British cars from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles annually.

  • Tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. will be eliminated.

  • The U.K. will lower tariffs on U.S. beef and ethanol, allowing increased American agricultural exports.

3️⃣ US Corporations Are Buying Back a Record $500B in Stock (Source)

• Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.53% ) , Alphabet $GOOG ( ▼ 0.88% ) , Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 0.63% ) , and Visa $V ( ▲ 0.36% ) lead the charge, with buybacks totaling over $500 billion in just three months.

• Buybacks reduce share count, boosting EPS and stock prices, contributing to recent market strength.

• Firms are returning cash instead of investing in growth, signaling caution amid economic uncertainty and trade tensions.

🔎 What 5 Rich & Powerful Are Buying

📊 Baillie Gifford – Massive NU Investment $NU ( ▲ 0.23% ) 
→ Increased stake by $421 million, signaling strong confidence in Nubank
→ NU is now one of Baillie Gifford’s largest fintech positions in LatAm
→ Comes after NU’s solid earnings and user growth momentum

₿ Millennium, D.E. Shaw & Paul Tudor Jones – Load Up on Bitcoin ETF $IBIT ( ▲ 1.81% ) 
→ Millennium: Bought 6.3M shares (+27%)
→ D.E. Shaw: Added 7.4M shares (+345%), now a top position
→ Paul Tudor Jones: Boosted stake 82%, now his largest ETF holding
→ Institutional momentum surging behind BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF

📈 Charles Schwab & Gina Rinehart – Trump Media $DJT ( ▼ 0.99% ) 
→ Schwab increased holdings by 33%, now owns 788,722 shares
→ Gina Rinehart bought 150,000 shares (~$3.7M)
→ Despite $DJT’s steep losses, big names still betting on the brand

🚗 Lyft – Expands Stock Buyback to $750M - $LYFT ( ▲ 28.08% ) 
→ Lyft doubled down despite slowing growth and market share battles
→ Move aims to support share price amid operational shifts
→ Buybacks can lift EPS, but raise questions about future strategy

📉 David Einhorn – DME Capital Goes Bearish
→ Returned +8.2% in Q1, beating the S&P 500’s –4.6% drop
→ Shifted into gold and consumer stock shorts
→ Citing trade fears under Trump 2.0, he’s bracing for market stress

📊 One Chart That Explains Everything

• #1 🇺🇸 U.S. leads with 1,873 billion-dollar firms, over one-third of the global total.

• #2 🇯🇵 Japan ranks 2nd with 404 companies over $1B in market cap.

• #3 🇮🇳 India has surged to 348 firms, up from just 20 in 2000.

• #4 🇨🇳 China sits at 216, behind India, Japan, and Canada.

• 🌎 Latin America accounts for just 2.5%, the smallest regional share.

🔥 Underrated Stock of the Week: $DECK ( ▼ 3.62% ) 

📚 Company Overview:
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and markets footwear, apparel, and accessories under brands like UGG, HOKA, and Teva. Its focus on premium branding, trend alignment, and global expansion positions it as a mid-cap leader in the consumer discretionary sector.

📊 Key Financials & Metrics:

• Stock Price: $121.07

• P/E Ratio: 19.65x

• Market Cap: $19B

• EV/EBITDA: 13.3x

• Quarterly Revenue Growth: +17.1% YoY

• Quarterly EPS Growth: +17.1% YoY

• Net Profit Margin: 19.1%

• Debt-to-Equity: 0.1x

• ROE: 39.8%

• Beta: 1.11

• 12-Mo Analyst Target: $168.94 (+39.5%)

• 30-Day Change: +4.3% | YTD Change: -40%

💪 Pros:
✔️ Double-digit revenue & EPS growth, led by HOKA's explosive momentum
✔️ Global expansion & product innovation driving long-term upside
✔️ Pristine balance sheet with high ROE and minimal debt

💩 Cons:
❌ Sensitive to macro headwinds and consumer discretionary cycles
❌ Faces stiff competition from giants like Nike and Adidas

🔎 Why It’s Underrated:
Deckers is delivering exceptional operating results but still trades at a reasonable P/E, below many consumer growth peers. Despite a nearly -40% YTD loss, it's not on most investors’ radars. With HOKA gaining market share, UGG maintaining pricing power, and management hinting at M&A opportunities, $DECK presents an attractive risk-reward setup. If consumer sentiment holds up, Deckers could perform better in 2025.

🚀 Biggest Market Movers

📈 Top 3 Gainers

• $PODD ( ▲ 20.88% ) – Earnings crushed expectations as insulin pump sales soared.

• $TTD ( ▲ 18.6% ) – Strong digital ad demand drove a surprise revenue beat.

• $LYFT ( ▲ 28.08% ) – Ride volume and margins improved more than expected.

📉 Top 3 Losers

• $AKAM ( ▼ 10.76% ) – Missed estimates and warned on cloud slowdown.

• $CRWD ( ▼ 4.21% ) – Margins shrank despite strong sales, spooking investors.

• $AFRM ( ▼ 14.47% ) – Missed earnings and raised red flags on consumer credit

🐤 Tweet of the Week

Despite $TSLA ( ▲ 4.72% )’s bad earnings, the stock is up 32% since. Cathie wood suggest stock will 10X by 2030 😲 

📅 Upcoming Economic Events to Watch

Tues, May 14

• 🧾 U.S. CPI (Inflation) – Big Fed rate implications

• Q1 earnings - $HD ( ▼ 0.59% ) , $PANW ( ▼ 0.85% ) , $NU ( ▲ 0.23% ) 

Wed, May 15

• 🛍️ U.S. Retail Sales – Consumer strength check

• Q1 earnings - $TJX ( ▲ 0.01% ) , $SNOW ( ▲ 0.1% ) 

Thurs, May 16

• 📉 Jobless Claims – Labor market pulse

• Q1 earnings - $TD ( ▲ 0.21% ) , $INTU ( ▼ 0.34% ) 

💡 Financial Term of the Week: Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Definition:
Free Cash Flow is the cash a company keeps after paying for big expenses like buildings or equipment. It’s what’s left to reinvest, pay dividends, reduce debt, or buy back stock.

Formula:
FCF = Operating Cash Flow – Capital Expenditures

Example:
Company X earns $500M in cash, spends $100M on equipment → FCF = $400M

Why It Matters:
It shows real, usable cash—not just accounting profits. Investors value FCF because it’s tough to fake and signals strong financial health.